A five-variable linear model trained on three rookie classes (2023–2025) uses pre-draft weight, hand width, standing vertical, lane agility, and wingspan to project rookie-year Defensive BPM — restricted to rookies who actually saw the floor for at least 100 NBA minutes. Meant as a scouting prompt, not a verdict.
Read it like this: dots above the dashed line outperformed their combine profile; dots below underperformed. The model gets the order roughly right at the extremes but is noisy in the middle. That's what an R² of 0.23 looks like.